Services
Explore our range of services and the methodologies behind them
Location Analysis
Location Analysis evaluates whether a specific site or area can support a viable business. We map the existing competitive landscape, model the demand each location can realistically reach, and identify where that demand is underserved, including pockets right next to existing competition, before assessing the most promising areas in enough depth to support a concrete site decision. It is designed to support two kinds of decisions: validating a location already under consideration, or finding the strongest areas within a broader geography when the location has not yet been chosen.
Key Components
Competitive Density Mapping
We usually map the full set of existing competitors across the target territory and translate their distribution into a structured view of where the market is concentrated and where it thins out. We locate every relevant competitor, identify the clusters where supply is densest, and form a preliminary read of the sparse areas that may be worth a closer look. Our goal is to establish the competitive baseline that every later step builds on, before any demand is quantified.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Competitor identification and mapping across the territory
- Cluster detection (zones of high competitive concentration)
- Preliminary read of dense versus sparse areas
Catchment Modelling
We quantify the reachable demand around each location by building travel-time catchments rather than simple radius circles. We measure the population that can reach a point within defined travel-time bands, then weight each band with a distance-decay factor so that nearer demand counts more heavily than demand at the edge of reach. Our goal is to convert raw population into a realistic, accessibility-adjusted measure of how much demand a location can actually capture.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Travel-time catchment construction across defined bands
- Distance-decay weighting applied to each band
- Residential and transient population within reach
- Accessibility factors (road network, transport, parking)
- Net weighted catchment per location
Opportunity Modelling
We combine the competitive map and the weighted catchments into a demand and supply model that identifies where genuine opportunity exists. Using gravity-based spatial modelling, such as the Huff model, we estimate how demand distributes across competing locations and surface the areas where demand is underserved, including pockets close to existing competition where current supply has not absorbed the available demand. Our goal is to move from "where is there no competition" to "where is there unmet demand," producing a ranked set of opportunity areas alongside clearly defined whitespace zones.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Demand allocation across existing competitors via gravity modelling
- Identification of underserved demand, including near competition
- Whitespace detection from non-overlapping catchments
- Ranking of opportunity areas by unmet demand
- Shortlist of candidate zones for deeper assessment
Opportunity Analysis
We take the shortlisted opportunity areas and examine each in depth to turn a promising zone into an actionable site decision. We widen the competitive lens beyond direct competitors to the full local commercial context, factor in seasonal patterns in demand and traffic, and assess the positioning options within the area, from a standalone site to joining or anchoring an existing cluster. Our goal is a decision-ready view of each shortlisted area that supports a concrete site choice.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Full local competitive and commercial context, beyond direct competitors
- Seasonality of demand and traffic
- Traffic flow and high-visibility positioning within the area
- Site format options (standalone, add-on, or cluster anchor)
- Comparative scoring of shortlisted opportunities
Investment Study
Investment Study determines whether a business concept or location is financially viable by translating market assumptions and operational inputs into a structured financial model. We examine how costs are composed, how revenue can realistically be generated, and how the concept performs across a range of operating conditions before arriving at a clear view of break-even and return on investment. It is designed to support capital allocation decisions by replacing assumptions with evidence-based projections grounded in market data and operational realities.
Key Components
Cost Structure Mapping
We break down the cost base of a business concept to establish a clear picture of what it takes to operate at a given scale. Our goal is to build a grounded foundation for financial modelling by ensuring that all material cost elements are accounted for before revenue and profitability projections are layered on top.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Fixed and variable cost separation
- Location and occupancy costs
- Staffing and operational costs
- Supplier, inventory and equipment costs
- Cost sensitivity to changes in scale or volume
Revenue Modelling
We translate demand and operational assumptions into a projected revenue range for a given concept and location. We approach revenue estimation from two directions simultaneously: from the demand side based on catchment size, customer frequency, and average spend, and from the capacity side based on physical or operational throughput limits. Our goal is to establish a realistic revenue corridor rather than a single point estimate, anchoring projections in observable market behaviour rather than assumptions alone.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Demand-based revenue estimate
- Capacity-based revenue estimate
- Utilisation rate and throughput assumptions
- Average transaction value and visit frequency
- Peak and off-peak revenue distribution
Scenario Modelling
We stress-test the financial projections by running the business concept under different sets of assumptions to understand how outcomes change when key variables move. Rather than relying on a single base case, we construct a range of plausible futures (optimistic, base, and conservative) by adjusting inputs such as pricing, customer volume, and cost levels. Our goal is to understand not just whether the concept works under ideal conditions, but how resilient it is when reality diverges from the plan.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Sensitivity to pricing assumptions
- Sensitivity to customer volume and frequency
- Sensitivity to cost levels and structure
- Identification of critical variables with the highest impact on viability
Break-even and ROI Estimation
We draw on the cost structure, revenue model, and scenario assumptions built in the preceding steps to define the conditions under which the business concept becomes financially self-sustaining and the return it generates on the capital invested. Rather than producing a single break-even point, we derive a range of outcomes tied directly to the scenarios already constructed, giving a realistic picture of how quickly and under what conditions the investment pays back. Our goal is to translate all prior analysis into the two numbers most relevant to an investment decision.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Break-even revenue, customer volume and utilisation rate
- Payback period across scenarios
- Return on investment across scenarios
- Sensitivity of break-even to cost and pricing shifts
- Minimum viable scale for financial sustainability
Root Cause Analysis
Root Cause Analysis identifies why a business or location is underperforming by working systematically from the symptom to its underlying cause. We first pinpoint exactly what is declining and where it is concentrated, then test whether the cause lies outside the business, in shifting demand or competition, or inside it, in customer behaviour, economics, and operations, before isolating the factors that genuinely explain the decline and pointing to where the client should focus. It is designed to replace guesswork with an evidence-backed diagnosis, combining the client's internal data with external market analysis so that action targets the real cause rather than the assumed one.
Key Components
Performance Diagnosis
We start by pinpointing exactly where the underperformance sits before testing why it is happening. Using the client's internal data, we establish what is actually declining, whether it is revenue, margin, footfall, or a specific product, segment, location, or time period, and we quantify how far it has moved from where it should be. Our goal is to define the problem precisely, because a vague symptom leads to a vague diagnosis.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Identification of the specific metric in decline (revenue, margin, volume, footfall)
- Localisation by product, segment, location, or channel
- Time-based view of when the decline began and how it has progressed
- Magnitude of the gap against expected or historical performance
- Isolation of the parts of the business that are performing normally
External Driver Assessment
We test whether the cause lies outside the business, in the market it operates in. We examine whether demand in the catchment has shifted, whether the local customer base or its spending power has changed, and whether the competitive environment has moved through new entrants, closures, or pricing changes. Our goal is to establish how much of the decline can be explained by forces the business does not control.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Shifts in catchment demand and demographics
- Macro and category trends affecting the market
- New competitors, closures, or changes in competitive density
- Competitor pricing and positioning moves
- Estimated share of the decline attributable to external factors
Internal Driver Assessment
We test whether the cause lies inside the business itself. Drawing on the client's internal data, we examine customer retention and purchasing behaviour, the unit economics and cost structure, pricing relative to the market, and where operational friction may be eroding performance. Our goal is to surface the internal factors that may be driving the decline, separately from anything happening in the market.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Customer retention, churn, and changes in purchasing behaviour
- Unit economics and movements in the cost structure
- Pricing alignment with the market and with margins
- Operational friction points affecting delivery or capacity
- Estimated share of the decline attributable to internal factors
Root Cause Isolation
We bring the external and internal findings together to separate the factors that genuinely explain the underperformance from those that merely coincide with it. By weighing each candidate driver against the pattern of the decline established at the outset, we rule out the ones that do not fit and identify the primary cause, along with any secondary contributors. Our goal is to move from a list of possible explanations to a clear, evidence-backed conclusion.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Cross-checking each candidate driver against the observed decline
- Elimination of factors that do not fit the evidence
- Identification of the primary root cause
- Recognition of secondary or compounding contributors
- A clear statement of what is, and is not, driving the problem
Corrective Direction
We translate the identified root cause into a clear direction for where the client should focus. Rather than a full turnaround plan, we point to the levers most likely to address the underlying cause, indicate which are within the client's control to act on quickly, and flag where deeper operational or financial work may be required. Our goal is to ensure the diagnosis leads to action rather than ending at a finding.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Priority levers tied directly to the identified root cause
- Distinction between quick adjustments and structural changes
- Indication of where the client can act independently
- Flags for areas needing deeper analysis or specialist input
- A focused direction of travel rather than a detailed implementation plan
Company Valuation
Company Valuation determines what a business is realistically worth by triangulating several valuation methods rather than relying on a single figure. We normalize the financials to reveal sustainable earnings, value the business from both a market and an intrinsic perspective, and test the factors that underpin or threaten that value before arriving at a defensible valuation range. It is designed to support acquisition, investment, and sale decisions by replacing headline asking prices and rules of thumb with an evidence-based view grounded in the company's actual financials and market position.
Key Components
Earnings Normalization
We adjust the company's reported financials to reveal the earnings a buyer would actually inherit, stripping out the distortions that obscure underlying performance. We remove one-off and non-recurring items, normalize owner-related and discretionary expenses, and restate the figures onto a consistent, comparable basis. Our goal is to establish a clean, sustainable earnings base, because every valuation method that follows is only as reliable as the earnings it is built on.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Removal of one-off and non-recurring items
- Normalization of owner compensation and discretionary expenses
- Adjustment for non-operating assets and liabilities
- Sustainable (normalized) EBITDA and earnings base
Market-Based Valuation
We value the business by reference to what the market actually pays for comparable companies and transactions. Drawing on registered financial data for peers in the same sector, we identify the relevant valuation multiples, adjust them for differences in size, growth, and risk, and apply them to the normalised earnings base. Our goal is to anchor the valuation in observable market evidence rather than theory, establishing what a business of this profile is currently worth to the market.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Selection of comparable companies and transactions
- Sector multiples drawn from registered financial data
- Adjustment for size, growth, and risk differences
- Application of multiples to the normalised earnings base
- Market-implied value range
Intrinsic Valuation
We value the business on the future cash it can realistically generate, discounting those projected cash flows back to their value today. We build the projection from the company's revenue and cost structure, set a discount rate that reflects the specific risk of the business, and capture its long-term value through a defensible terminal assumption. Our goal is to establish what the business is worth based on the cash it can produce, independent of current market sentiment.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Free cash flow projection from revenue and cost structure
- Discount rate reflecting business-specific risk
- Terminal value assumptions
- Sensitivity to growth and discount-rate inputs
- Intrinsic (DCF-based) value range
Value Assessment and Synthesis
We bring the market and intrinsic approaches together into a single, defensible view of value, informed by the factors that underpin or threaten it. We assess the durability of the company's market position and its dependence on individual customers, suppliers, or people, then use that read of risk and earnings quality to weigh the two methods, reconcile their differences, and frame the result as a range tied to clearly stated assumptions. Our goal is to translate the full analysis into a valuation that reflects not just the numbers but their reliability, and that holds up to scrutiny in a negotiation, an investment decision, or a sale.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Durability of market position and earnings quality
- Revenue, customer, supplier, or key-person concentration
- Reconciliation and weighting of the market and intrinsic methods
- Defensible valuation range rather than a single point
- Key risks, assumptions, and value drivers behind the range
Custom Analysis
Beyond predefined analyses, every business faces questions that don't fit neatly into a single framework. Custom Analysis combines components from our core methodology (market demand, competition, customers, and economics) into a tailored analytical model built around a specific business question. Whether the objective is to isolate a single dimension such as competitive density in a new category, or to layer multiple components into a broader strategic view, the analysis is scoped and structured to deliver a clear, evidence-based answer. Each engagement starts with defining the decision the analysis needs to support, then selects and weights the relevant analytical dimensions accordingly.
Key Components
Market Demand
Market demand analysis translates macroeconomic conditions and local market signals into quantifiable indicators of underlying demand within a defined catchment area. It captures both top-down drivers such as industry growth, disposable income trends, and consumer confidence, as well as bottom-up signals including population density, commuter flows, and location accessibility. The goal is to understand where demand originates, how it behaves, and where structural imbalances between demand and supply emerge.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Macro and industry signals
- Geographic and local demand
- Demographic indicators
- Demand behaviour
- Demand gaps
Competition
Competition analysis evaluates the structure and intensity of the existing market by translating competitor presence, positioning, and behaviour into measurable indicators. It assesses how concentrated or fragmented a market is, how competitors are distributed geographically, and how they position themselves across pricing and value segments. The objective is to understand not only who the players are, but how they interact, compete, and shape market dynamics within a given catchment area.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Market structure
- Geographic competition
- Positioning
- Competitive behaviour
- Barriers to entry
Customers
Customer analysis focuses on understanding who the end users are, how they behave, and what drives their purchasing decisions within a specific market. It translates demographic and behavioural characteristics into structured profiles that explain demand formation, spending patterns, and responsiveness to price and positioning. The objective is to identify not just who the customers are, but how they interact with the category across the full decision and usage cycle.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Segmentation
- Customer profiling
- Purchasing behaviour
- Customer economics
- Customer journey
Economics
Economics analysis focuses on translating operational and market inputs into clear financial performance indicators that define the viability of a specific location or concept. It examines how revenue is generated and constrained at a unit level, how costs are structured, and how pricing and utilisation translate into profitability. The goal is to understand whether an opportunity can sustain itself economically under different operating conditions and market scenarios.
The section typically includes the following dimensions:
- Unit economics
- Cost structure
- Revenue potential
- Pricing
- Break-even
- Scenario modelling
- Operational ecosystem (supply / partners)
Services
Explore our range of services and the methodologies behind them
Methodology
Market demand analysis translates macroeconomic conditions and local market signals into quantifiable indicators of underlying demand within a defined catchment area. It captures both top-down drivers such as industry growth, disposable income trends, and consumer confidence, as well as bottom-up signals including population density, commuter flows, and location accessibility. The goal is to understand where demand originates, how it behaves, and where structural imbalances between demand and supply emerge.
The analysis is structured across the following dimensions:
- Macro and industry signals
- Geographic and local demand
- Demographic indicators
- Demand behaviour
- Demand gaps
Competition analysis evaluates the structure and intensity of the existing market by translating competitor presence, positioning, and behaviour into measurable indicators. It assesses how concentrated or fragmented a market is, how competitors are distributed geographically, and how they position themselves across pricing and value segments. The objective is to understand not only who the players are, but how they interact, compete, and shape market dynamics within a given catchment area.
The analysis is structured, but not limited to:
- Market structure
- Geographic competition
- Positioning
- Competitive behaviour
- Barriers to entry
Customer analysis focuses on understanding who the end users are, how they behave, and what drives their purchasing decisions within a specific market. It translates demographic and behavioural characteristics into structured profiles that explain demand formation, spending patterns, and responsiveness to price and positioning. The objective is to identify not just who the customers are, but how they interact with the category across the full decision and usage cycle.
The analysis is structured across the following dimensions:
- Segmentation
- Customer profiling
- Purchasing behaviour
- Customer economics
- Customer journey
Economics analysis focuses on translating operational and market inputs into clear financial performance indicators that define the viability of a specific location or concept. It examines how revenue is generated and constrained at a unit level, how costs are structured, and how pricing and utilisation translate into profitability. The goal is to understand whether an opportunity can sustain itself economically under different operating conditions and market scenarios.
The analysis is structured across the following dimensions:
- Unit economics
- Cost structure
- Revenue potential
- Pricing
- Break-even
- Scenario modelling
- Operational ecosystem (supply / partners)
